Building a robust financial model requires careful planning, nuanced assumptions, and thoughtful scenario analysis; without these elements, even the most promising business ventures can struggle to align projections with reality.
In this article, we explore the core steps for creating financial models that not only assess a project’s feasibility but also account for variables like growth rates, cost fluctuations, and profitability over time—key factors that, if overlooked, can lead to inaccurate forecasts.
1. 📋 DEFINE THE MODEL'S PURPOSE
This step clarifies the overall goal of the financial model and the scope of its analysis. It sets the foundation for what the model will achieve.
OBJECTIVE IDENTIFICATION ••• Clearly understand what you're trying to achieve, whether it's valuing a business or assessing a project's feasibility;
SCOPE DEFINITION ••• Determine the breadth of your model, including which financial aspects to include.
EXAMPLE
A manufacturing company is planning to open a new production facility and needs to assess the financial feasibility of this expansion. The goal is to determine whether the new facility will generate enough cash flow to cover its $5M investment within five years. The company expects the facility to generate an additional $2M in revenue annually, starting in the second year. After accounting for $1M in annual operating costs and $500K in depreciation, the company estimates an annual net profit of $500K starting in year 2.
CALCULATION
Revenue in year 2: $2M
Operating costs: $1M
Depreciation: $500K
Net profit: $2M - $1M - $500K = $500K net profit per year.
To recover the $5M investment, it will take approximately 10 years ($5M / $500K annual profit).
EXAMPLE IN POINTS
$5M production facility
Expected to generate $2M/year starting in year 2
Goal to recoup investment within 10 years based on $500K annual profit after costs.
POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS
Increase revenue by 2-3% annually
Lower operating costs by 3-5%
Use a 5-year depreciation schedule
2. 📊 GATHER HISTORICAL DATA AND ASSUMPTIONS
In this step, collect the past financial performance and key assumptions to guide future projections. Accurate data and realistic assumptions are crucial.
DATA COLLECTION ••• Compile relevant financial statements, such as income statements and balance sheets;
ASSUMPTION DEVELOPMENT ••• Establish key assumptions for growth rates, costs, and other variables.
EXAMPLE
The company’s historical financial data shows steady revenue growth of 7% annually. Revenues were $12M last year, with operating expenses of $8M. Gross margins have been consistent at 40%. For the new facility, the company assumes a gross margin of 35%, given the higher initial costs.Other assumptions include:
Fixed investment: $5M in year 1
Annual depreciation: $500K
Incremental revenue from the new facility: $2M in year 2, $2.5M in year 3, and $3M in year 4
Operating costs for the facility: $1M annually
CALCULATION
For year 2:
Revenue from the new facility: $2M
Gross margin: 35% of $2M = $700K gross profit
Operating costs: $1M
Depreciation: $500K
Net profit: $700K - $1M - $500K = -$800K (loss in year 2 due to higher fixed costs)
EXAMPLE IN POINTS
Last year’s revenue: $12M
40% gross margin
New facility adds $2M in year 2 at 35% margin
Projected $800K loss in year 2 due to high fixed costs.
POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS
Increase gross margin to 36-37%
Reduce operating costs to $950K
Use a standard depreciation starting in year 1
3. 📐 BUILD THE MODEL
This step involves structuring the financial model, entering the necessary formulas, and creating scenarios to test different outcomes.
STRUCTURE DESIGN ••• Lay out the model logically, usually starting with revenue projections and then costs;
FORMULA INPUT ••• Use formulas to automate calculations, ensuring accuracy and flexibility;
SCENARIO ANALYSIS ••• Incorporate different scenarios to test how changes in assumptions affect outcomes.
EXAMPLE
The financial model is structured as follows:
Revenue Projections:
$12M baseline revenue growing at 7% annually. Incremental revenue from the new facility: $2M in year 2, $2.5M in year 3, $3M in year 4.
Cost Structure:
Baseline operating expenses are $8M, growing by 5% annually. Additional $1M in operating costs for the new facility, with depreciation of $500K annually.
Profitability Calculation (Year 2):
Total revenue: $12M * 1.07 + $2M = $14.84M
Operating costs: $8M * 1.05 + $1M = $9.4M
Gross margin: 35% on new facility’s revenue, 40% on baseline revenue
Gross profit: $12M 40% = $4.8M (baseline) + $2M 35% = $700K (new facility) = $5.5M gross profit
Depreciation: $500K
Net profit: $5.5M - $9.4M - $500K = -$4.4M (loss in year 2 due to high costs and depreciation)
Scenario Analysis:
Base Case: 7% growth, incremental revenue $2M, operating costs $1M
Best Case: 10% growth, incremental revenue $2.5M, operating costs $900K
Worst Case: 4% growth, incremental revenue $1.8M, operating costs $1.2M
Base Case Net Profit (Year 2):
Revenue: $14.84M
Costs: $9.4M
Gross Profit: $5.5M
Depreciation: $500K
Net Profit: $5.5M - $9.4M - $500K = -$4.4M (loss in year 2)
EXAMPLE IN POINTS
Year 2 projection:
Revenue of $14.84M, costs of $9.4M, and depreciation of $500K
Result in $4.4M loss
Potential to reduce losses or break even by year 3 through scenario analysis.
POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS
Increase growth to 6-7%
Delay revenue to mid-year 2
Cut costs by 2-3% annually
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